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The first estimates for the 2026/27 season point to total grain output of 158 million tonnes and economic activity worth US$54 billion. That would be a new all-time high and a big change from where the sector stood only a few years ago.
President Javier Milei has received encouraging early news about 2027. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, one of Argentina’s main agricultural trade bodies, projects grain production of 158 million tonnes for the coming cycle. That is only 0.5% more than the 157 million tonnes recorded in 2026, but it would still set a new record.
The exchange also expects economic activity linked to agribusiness to reach US$54 billion, almost 6% more than the previous cycle. Exports are forecast at US$41 billion, up 6.9%.
Ramiro Costa, the exchange’s general manager, stressed that these figures are not final. “They represent the potential we see today and will depend on how the weather and production decisions evolve over the coming months,” the economist said.
From drought to record harvests
The size of these numbers is clearer when you look back a few years. In the 2022/23 season, Argentina went through one of the worst droughts in its modern history. National grain production fell to about 94 million tonnes, according to the National University of Rosario. Soybean output dropped to around 21 million tonnes, less than half of the previous year’s crop, the Buenos Aires Times reported. Researchers at World Weather Attribution found that the drought roughly halved the wheat and soybean harvests. The resulting loss of export dollars badly hurt an economy that was already short of foreign currency.
The recovery since then has been dramatic. In September 2025, the Grain Exchange forecast a then-record 142.6 million tonnes for 2025/26, according to La Nación. As the season went on and conditions turned out well, the estimate was raised further. Wheat reached a historic 27.8 million tonnes, and corn also did very well, with exports hitting record monthly volumes. The season ended at about 157 million tonnes. The 2027 forecast would build on that level rather than simply bouncing back from a bad year.
Still the country’s main source of dollars
Mining, oil and gas, especially from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, have grown strongly in both output and exports. Even so, agriculture is still Argentina’s largest source of foreign currency. Between January and August 2026, primary products and farm-based manufactured goods (not counting meat) made up just over 50% of the US$67 billion in goods Argentina exported.
Export taxes: a gradual cut
One reason for optimism about the new season is the government’s continued reduction of agricultural export duties, known locally as “retenciones.” These taxes have long been a point of conflict between farmers and successive governments.
Milei’s path has not been a straight line. A temporary cut introduced in January 2025 was due to end in June of that year. In July 2025, the government made permanent reductions: the soybean rate fell from 33% to 26%, and corn fell from 12% to 9.5%. In September 2025, during a period of currency pressure, export taxes on grains were suspended altogether for a short time until a US$7 billion cap was reached. Further cuts were announced in December 2025.
In May 2026, at the ceremony for the Grain Exchange’s 172nd anniversary, Milei confirmed that duties on wheat and barley would fall from 7.5% to 5.5% starting in June 2026. For soybeans, he promised a gradual reduction from January 2027 through 2028, depending on how tax revenue develops.
Ricardo Marra, president of the exchange, said that moving step by step toward ending export taxes is “essential.” In his view, it “improves producers’ bottom line” and also “creates better incentives to produce, invest, adopt technology, and export.”
Challenges beyond the farm gate
Marra’s overall tone was positive, but he also pointed out problems. Competitiveness, he said, “does not end at the ranch gate.” To “produce and export more over the next decade,” Argentina needs better roads, railways, port access and waterways. These infrastructure gaps have held the sector back for decades.
“We also need to continue expanding market access and the international integration of our agribusiness sector, removing barriers, forging agreements, and ensuring that Argentina can compete in an increasing number of markets with products of higher value-added,” he added.
His comments matter even more because one of Argentina’s main competitors in world agricultural markets is its own Mercosur partner, Brazil.
The Mercosur outlook to 2036
The rivalry was clear at the launch of the third edition of the exchange’s Mercosur Outlook, which forecasts the regional farm sector through 2036.
According to the exchange, Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) exports US$197 billion of food each year. Brazil is the world’s largest food exporter, and Argentina ranks third. Together, the bloc supplies 59% of global soybean exports and 36% of global corn exports.
The exchange expects the bloc’s cereal and oilseed production to rise from nearly 535 million to 591 million tonnes, which is growth of 18.7%. Over the same period, planted area would expand by 9.6% and exports by 18.1%.
Corn would add the most volume, with 52 million additional tonnes, 64% of it from Brazil. Soybeans would follow with 34 million more tonnes, 75% of that from Brazil. Wheat would add 5.3 million tonnes, and here Argentina would supply 74% of the increase.
The figures point to a clear pattern. Brazil is likely to lead growth in the big summer crops, while Argentina keeps a strong advantage in wheat. For Argentina, whether it can turn record harvests into lasting export gains will depend on the same issues Marra raised: lower taxes, better infrastructure and wider access to world markets.
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